The Latino vote and the GOP: Christian Science Monitor + Comment

http://www.csmonitor.com/patchworknation/csmstaff/2009/0211/the-latino-vote-and-the-gop/

The Latino vote and the GOP

Using demographic data, Patchwork Nation has identified 11 voter communities.

(Colors on map represent unique voter communities)

 

James Gimpel

Posted: 02.11.2009 / 10:34 AM EST

Exit polls from Election Day 2008 showed that nationwide, Barack Obama won 67 percent of the Latino vote and John McCain 32 percent. Latino support for Senator McCain was similar to what President Bush received in 2004, which was in the 39 to 44 percent range.

The Republicans did not gain ground with Latino voters in 2008. But a look back at a number of election cycles indicates that the GOP can rely on 30 percent of the Hispanic vote as a reliable base. In fact, Republicans see the Latino population as a growing constituency and a desirable target of their campaigns.

Here we examine the Latino vote across the 11 community types in Patchwork Nation. Was there geographic variation in Hispanic support for McCain, or did the same percentage of Latinos support Mr. Obama from region to region?

To answer this question, we analyzed a 50-state survey conducted online by Zogby International just before Election Day. It captured a sizable number of Hispanics, more than 3,400 of whom reported that they were likely to vote. The survey's sample was better educated than the voting population as a whole, yet the estimate for the final vote division among Latinos was 65 percent for Obama and 35 percent for McCain – not far off from the exit poll result.

The vote in Patchwork Nation locales

Their political preferences did vary somewhat by region, though not as much as one might expect. Our tabulations suggest that the most lopsidedly Democratic voting occurred among Latinos living in liberal "Campus and Careers" locations, where only 25 percent supported McCain. Support for Obama also went above the 65 percent figure in large cities of the old urban core ("Industrial Metropolis"), growing and diversifying cities ("Boom Towns"), wealthy and well-educated locales ("Monied 'Burbs"), and counties with large African-American populations ("Minority Central").

McCain had a good showing among Latinos in "Immigration Nation" communities, which includes many Arizona counties, where he received 45 percent of the Hispanic vote. McCain also won an estimated 41 percent of the Latino vote in "Military Bastions" (which are near armed-forces installations), 40 percent in small-town "Service Worker Centers," and 38 percent in culturally conservative "Evangelical Epicenters."

Moreover, in "Emptying Nest" locations, many of which are in Florida, McCain won a solid majority of Latinos polled. This probably reflects the Republican support among Cubans in that state, a notable exception to the generally 2-to-1 Democratic edge among Latinos.

There were too few Latinos participating in this particular survey from the most rural locations to obtain reliable estimates for "Tractor Country" locations.

Different concentrations of Hispanics

One thing to keep in mind in reviewing these figures is that the Latino population is not evenly spread across these communities. Latinos appear to vote the most Republican in the areas where they are least concentrated – specifically in "Military Bastions" and "Service Worker Centers," where they make up a rather small percentage of the total population. In areas where they find themselves in greater concentration, they vote heavily Democratic, as in the "Monied 'Burbs" and in "Boom Towns."

The fact that McCain won an estimated 38 percent of the Latino vote in "Evangelical Epicenters" may indicate that Republicans fare better among Evangelical and "born-again" Latinos than they do among traditional Roman Catholics or the nonreligious.

Although Republicans have made little or no headway over the past decade in efforts to realign Hispanic voters, some places may offer a glimmer of hope – especially the more Republican areas of the South and Southwest.

Over the long term, Republicans can try to enlarge their voting margins among Latinos by focusing on Hispanics who are moving into areas of existing strength for the GOP. In these places, Latinos can develop ties to Republican adherents and participate in elections where GOP candidates are competitive. This will undoubtedly be a multigenerational process, not one that will develop in response to a single campaign or two.

Comment: There can be no doubt that the Latino vote will continue to play a key role in American electoral politics, though much needs to be done to assure that Latinos are not taken for granted and stuck in anyone's back pocket. In between elections, we need to focus on the power of the vote, continue to do voter registration, continue to promote community education and always seek to raise consciousness.

Latinos must see themselves as a part of the larger general population, integrate on all levels and not isolate themselves into pockets of influence. We need to utilize with wisdom the power of the Internet to get our voices out, to express our opinions and to let the world know that we are here inside the U.S.A. in opposition to the global chess game of the old Amerikan Empire!

Education for Liberation!
Peter S. Lopez aka: Peta
Email: peter.lopez51@yahoo.com

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/THIRD-WORLD-NEWS/

KeyLink: http://www.NetworkAztlan.com