Victory on voter ID may cost GOP Latino support
By CHRISTY HOPPE and TERRENCE STUTZ / The
choppe@dallasnews.com ; tstutz@dallasnews.com
AUSTIN – Republicans may win their fierce battle to require voters to present photo IDs, a vibrant issue to grassroots conservatives. But doing so could help them lose the larger, future war for political dominance.
Many Latinos, who are the fastest-growing bloc of voters in
Republican leaders dismiss the notion that promoting a requirement for voters to present a picture or other forms of identification before they vote will damage the party among minorities.
Eric Opiela, executive director of the state party, pointed to a
But it has become a noxious partisan issue, forcing the 19 Republicans in the Senate to change rules to muscle the measure past the 12 Democrats after a marathon all-night hearing. A final vote this week will send the bill to a less certain future in the House where Republicans hold a mere 76-74 advantage.
Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas, and others believe the GOP talking points on the issue, commonly referred to as "voter ID," have been decidedly anti-Hispanic.
"They would have you believe that busloads of illegal immigrants are coming to a district near you and engaging in voter impersonation in order to vote for Democrats," he said.
Six years of sitting on legislative panels studying voter fraud has taught him that people will tamper with mailed-in ballots. But he said there is virtually no evidence of anyone – illegal immigrants or others – showing up at polling places to vote with someone else's voter registration card.
"The Latino community is not stupid," Anchia said. "You can't call us fat, ugly and stupid for a year and then ask us to go to the prom with you. It's just not going to happen."
Election numbers
The attitude seems to be reflected in election numbers: Latino support in Texas was 49 percent for President George W. Bush in 2004; 44 percent for U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2006, when she was the top official on the ballot; and 35 percent last year for John McCain.
Democrats say that requiring a photo ID will be particularly hard on the disabled, the elderly and low-income workers without driver's licenses, many of whom are more likely to be racial minorities. Republican supporters of the measure say the issue of securing the integrity of the ballot is important enough to tighten the ID requirements, even if it inconveniences some.
Longtime GOP consultant Royal Masset said it is a "serious mistake" for the party to put so much emphasis on the issue in
"There's no doubt voter ID does great" among the Republican base, he said. "But it is also the kind of issue that could lose the Latino vote for the Republican Party for the next 30 years."
Masset, the former political director for the state party, called voter ID "another last straw" for Latinos, who would be forced by Republicans to spend time and money obtaining additional IDs because of an alleged threat of fraudulent voting.
"One way to get Latinos upset is to start criminalizing them, to imply they are criminals," he said. "And Hispanics should take this personally, because it is aimed at them."
Jerry Polinard, a political science professor at the University of Texas-Pan American, predicted that if Republicans are able to push through voter ID, it will be just like the immigration issue: "another gift for the Democratic Party."
Polinard, an expert on voting patterns across the state and particularly in South Texas, said that while there is nothing "intrinsically discriminatory" about requiring a photo ID to vote, "it will be about as popular down here as the border fence."
"In the short run, voter ID helps the Republican Party in
"With every election, the Latino vote becomes more important, and in the long run this will come back to haunt the party, because it is seen as having a disproportionate effect on minority voters."
Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, used the example of her 94-year-old aunt, who has lived with her family and other relatives over the years. Her aunt does not drive or have utility bills or bank accounts in her own name.
When advocates of voter ID suggest it's easy to show papers or a driver's license to prove who you are at the voting booth, they are ignoring how a lot of close-knit families operate, she said.
"When somebody disses your grandmother, they dis you. And when someone disses what you believe in ... is when Latinos act," she said.
Other states
Michael Bustamante, a spokesman for the William C. Velasquez Institute, which studies Latino voting trends, said what he's seeing in Texas with the voter ID bill is happening in other states as well.
The states pushing the measure have GOP leadership that wants to protect the ballot from illegal voters, which is understandable, he said.
"But it's the tone and the tenor of the argument," which seems to be aimed at the growing numbers of Hispanic voters and wondering if they're legal, Bustamante said.
"It's amazing how hard Republicans are working to create a divide between their party and the Latino voter," he said. "Pretty soon we're going to be blamed for athlete's foot."
But
The Democratic stance "will come back to haunt them," he said, adding: "We certainly plan to make it an issue in the next election."
So, say the Democrats, do they.
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